At a January 2022 fundraiser at his Mar-a-Lago resort, former President Donald Trump lauded U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, who stood alongside him in Florida, and declared, “at this rate, she’ll be president in about six years.”
But what if 2028 is far too conservative a timeline? What if Stefanik is seated in the Oval Office a little more than a year from now?
If it somehow comes to fruition, all of Stefanik’s critics might as well tip our caps to the New York congresswoman. It would mean her political shapeshifting and moral compromising took her to the top office in the land.
Admittedly, the underlying theory being discussed by top legal scholars may feel a little out of left field. Or, as Skidmore College political science professor Ronald Seyb put it to me: “If she does become president [in 2025], it would be akin to George Costanza becoming the owner of the Yankees,” referencing Jason Alexander’s famously neurotic “Seinfeld” character.
Then again, modern politics tend to be made for TV.
Roll the cameras.
STEFANIK'S STARDOM
Stefanik appeared last weekend on NBC’s “Meet the Press” and reiterated, as she said she has for some time, that she’s willing to serve in the White House if Donald Trump wins a second term. After all, she’s “ultra MAGA” and “proud of it” and boasts about being the first member of Congress to endorse Trump’s reelection campaign.
“I, of course, would be honored to serve in any capacity in a Trump administration,” the 39-year-old Republican House Conference Chair said during a more than 15-minute interview on “Meet the Press.” “I’m proud to be a strong supporter of President Trump, and he’s going to win this November.”
Then, when pushed by host Kristen Welker, Stefanik may have revealed more than she intended: “I’m not going to get into the content of my conversation with President Trump. I talk to him frequently. We’ve been focused on winning.”
We’ve been focused on winning?
In a statement echoing what Stefanik told Welker, Stefanik’s senior adviser Alex deGrasse told me: “Chairwoman Stefanik does not discuss her conversations with President Trump. She will continue to do all she can to ensure that President Trump is reelected and we can Make America Great Again.”
A few days after Stefanik’s “Meet the Press” appearance, Trump said during a Fox News town hall that he’s already made his running-mate choice.
"I mean, I know who it's going to be," the former president said this week.
The stars may be aligning toward Stefanik’s selection precisely because Trump’s admission comes just as the congresswoman’s star is rising. Trump, whose presidency may never have come to be if not for his reality TV days – and who as president was basically a professional TV viewer – is likely more impressed with Stefanik than ever.
The North Country congresswoman’s prominent spot on “Meet the Press” last weekend followed Stefanik’s viral questioning of top university presidents.
In true Trumpian temerity, Stefanik has declared her questioning of the university leaders as “the MOST-VIEWED congressional testimony in the HISTORY of the United States Congress.” (OK, I added the emphasis.)
Stefanik’s performance even prompted a “Saturday Night Live” lampoon. Sure, she was primarily the butt of the joke, but Trump must have loved seeing the likeness of one of his most loyal supporters being portrayed on such an iconic show.
Given all this, it’s fair to say Stefanik’s profile is bigger now than at any point since she arrived in Congress in 2015. And we know how much celebrity means to Trump. Sure, someone like 2022 Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake may make more political sense as a running mate since the former broadcaster, whose career included a stop locally at WNYT, could draw votes in an important swing state, whereas a New Yorker on the ticket isn't likely help Trump actually win the Empire State. Still, it’s possible that in the face of Stefanik’s newfound national stardom, Trump now sees Lake as yesterday’s news.
Then, there’s this plot point. State Sen. Daniel Stec, who is seen by many to be Stefanik’s logical successor, did not totally dismiss my question this week about being interested in Stefanik’s seat.
“Right now I remain 100% focused on my job as state senator and representing the interests and values of the residents of the 45th Senate District,” Stec told me via text.
Right now, he’s focused on being a state senator.
FIERCE LOYALTY
Regardless of how much you read into all of this, it’s clear, on the eve of the Iowa Caucuses, Stefanik has more of a chance than ever of being named Trump’s running mate.
Because beyond Stefanik’s growing profile and her increasing openness about serving in a Trump White House, her fierce fealty to the former president – swelling by the hour – could be what sets her apart. If Trump loves anything more than fame, it’s fealty.
And this is where Stefanik’s altered character enters in.
As has now been well-documented, Stefanik first won her seat as a moderate Republican in 2014. In 2016, she reportedly refused to even utter Trump’s name.
Now she carries a MAGA megaphone.
On “Meet the Press,” Stefanik even applied contorted logic to defend Trump’s rhetoric about migrants “poisoning the blood of our country,” which has been compared to rhetoric used by Adolf Hitler.
“Our border crisis is poisoning Americans through fentanyl,” Stefanik said. “It is poisoning people, including in my district, who are dying from overdoses of fentanyl.”
In addition, as outlined on “Meet the Press,” Stefanik has gone from originally calling the Jan. 6 attack “a truly tragic day for America,” and saying “violence in any form is absolutely unacceptable,” even adding, “it is anti-American and must be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” to now repeating Trump’s language about Jan. 6 perpetrators being “hostages.”
Many have made the case that the ambition behind Stefanik’s metamorphosis is obvious.
And while few fault someone who wants to move up, fewer are willing to defend someone who abandons core principles in the name of personal advancement.
Still, if Stefanik is able to successfully navigate her way to the highest office in the world by compromising her beliefs, we have to at least admire the effort. It would confirm, even beyond what a running-mate selection would already confirm, that Stefanik knew what she was doing this whole time.
VICE PRESIDENT OR ... PRESIDENT?
OK, but even if Trump selects Stefanik, and their ticket is successful in November, that only gets Stefanik as far as the vice presidency come 2025, not the presidency, right?
Perhaps not.
Consider what Jeannie Suk Gersen, a Harvard Law School professor, recently outlined in The New Yorker.
Earlier this month, the Supreme Court of the United States agreed to take on the Colorado court ruling that prevents Trump from appearing on the state’s ballot because of his role in the Jan. 6 riots and the 14th Amendment barring insurrectionists from holding office.
In a petition to the U.S. Supreme Court, Trump’s legal team argues, in part, that the former president should be allowed on the ballot because anyone is qualified to run for president, since Congress has the power to override a disqualification – even disqualification as a result of insurrection.
The piece notes some Confederate rebels won election to federal or state offices around 1868, and Congress ultimately did away with their disqualifications.
But, Gersen writes, overriding disqualification takes a two-thirds vote in the House and the Senate, meaning it’s hardly a guarantee.
So if Trump fails to secure Congressional override of a disqualification – voila – Trump’s vice president becomes president, Gersen explains.
A DEMOCRACY IN PERIL?
Obviously, we’re a very long way from any of that being possible. The Supreme Court has yet to rule on Trump’s qualification, Stefanik has yet to be named Trump’s running mate. Heck, Trump hasn’t even officially secured the Republican nomination.
Still, it’s a fascinating thought experiment.
And it’s at least mildly entertaining, no?
“That the 14th Amendment could be Stefanik’s most stalwart ally would be definitely a 'Stranger Things' situation,” professor Seyb told me.
It would also be a huge test for our democracy, which has been stressed nearly to the point of rupture in recent years.
But would it break our democracy?
It’s noteworthy that on “Meet the Press” Stefanik wouldn’t commit to certifying the election results in 2024, just as she voted against certifying results of the 2020 election.
“We will see if this is a legal and valid election,” she told Welker.
Guess we all need to stay tuned.