I came up empty in my mid-October search for potting soil in the garden center at a big-box discounter.
I knew where I had seen it before, but there instead were shelves of outdoor Christmas lights. Searching elsewhere along the perimeter yielded nothing, and a store clerk I asked for help suggested none would be found.
Then I took in the whole of the garden area and realized I was off-season: A modest display of fall mums soon would be gone, cleared away for more Christmas decorations already overflowing from inside the store.
Visit any retailer in October and you’ll see the same: Halloween decorations cheek by jowl with decor that says “Fall,” both to be supplanted by Christmas paraphernalia creeping in from the wings.
The National Retail Federation reports that many consumers start their holiday shopping before November, with more than four in 10 telling the trade group they’ll do so this year.
Most cite wanting to spread out spending and avoid the crowds and stress of last-minute shopping. But a new influence may be Amazon, or more specifically, the online behemoth’s October Prime Days shopping event.
Traditionally, Black Friday kicked off the holiday gift-buying frenzy the day after Thanksgiving, but Amazon tweaked that quite by accident when its usual July event was upended by the COVID-19 pandemic and pushed to October in 2020.
The following year, the two-day event resumed its July schedule, but 2022 saw the return of October deals, too, to spur signups to Prime’s subscription membership.
Add in counter-events staged by big omnichannel retailers like Walmart, Target and Best Buy to siphon off sales, and — voila! — consumers began “thinking about the holiday season and buying much earlier than they used to,” says Andrew Lipsman, vice president and principal analyst at Insider Intelligence, a New York City-based market research firm focused on digital commerce.
Rather than setting Thanksgiving and Christmas as the parameters, “you can make an argument … that the holiday season should start to be defined as all of Q4 [the October-December quarter] because you have this October kickoff now happening,” he said.
Lipsman offered that observation as part of a webinar that previewed 2023 holiday shopping, which Insider Intelligence predicts will reach $1.3 trillion this year, up 4.5% from 2022’s total.
That’s in line with other observers’ expectations, although all caution that while U.S. employment is strong, inflation is still high and consumers have spent down savings accumulated during the pandemic.
Lipsman said brick-and-mortar sales will still account for most holiday transactions, with buying online making up about 20% of overall sales and “mcomm,” mobile commerce, or sales via smartphones, comprising about half of that.
“Being on the phone I think is critical,” he counseled retailers, “and it becomes a key touchpoint to put promotions in front of consumers and stay relevant over the course of the whole holiday season.”